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British driver’s Dutch GP dominance raises possibility he could edge past rival with nine grands prix and three sprint races remaining
With Lando Norris’s crushing victory at Zandvoort, he reduced Max Verstappen’s championship advantage by eight points to 70. With nine grands prix and three sprint races remaining, overturning that deficit is an enormous task.
But combine that margin of victory with Red Bull’s worrying development trend and Verstappen’s failure to win in five races, that raises the possibility of Norris genuinely pushing Verstappen in a title battle.
Given the competition at the front and the nature of Formula One, there will be many variables (including the performances of Ferrari and Mercedes) that will come into play. The prospect of bad luck striking Verstappen or a non-finish could also turn things in McLaren’s favour. So, how does the rest of the season look for Norris’s championship hopes?
This could be a test for McLaren in the way that Zandvoort was not. Monza is an old-school, low-downforce, high-speed track meaning that there is not as much of a chance – with very few proper “corners” – where the MCL38 will be able to press home as much of an advantage as it did at Zandvoort. The slow-speed (required in the first two chicanes) however, is an area where McLaren have improved, as shown last weekend.
The aerodynamic efficiency of the RB20 on the straights will give it at least half a chance of victory. However, Verstappen did not scythe through the field at Spa. Conversely, one area where Red Bull have struggled is on tracks that require aggressive riding of kerbs, with struggles in Miami and Canada (relatively) and Monaco. Monza is one of those.
2023 result: Verstappen 1st, Norris 8th – 45.4sec behind.
Predicted advantage: Red Bull
As with Italy and Singapore, bumps and kerb riding could concern Red Bull. That is unless they find a way to solve or mitigate this persistent issue. Although this is Red Bull’s longest winless streak since 2020, they have not become a bad team overnight.
Ninth and 11th for McLaren in Baku last year is not representative as it was then in the earlier part of the season before their tremendous upgrade package at Austria. McLaren’s upgraded rear wing with added DRS efficiency will also be a help on the long-flat out section that ends the lap.
2023 result: Verstappen 1st, Norris 9th – 1min 20sec behind
Predicted advantage: McLaren
This could be Red Bull’s worst weekend of 2024. Singapore is one of the bumpiest tracks on the calendar and, as a street circuit, requires plenty of kerb riding to minimise lap time. This was also the only race that Red Bull did not win in 2023 and the response from the team was that it had an inherent weakness in “short-corner” circuits. Like Baku, Singapore is one of those.
The podium last year was made up of a Ferrari (Carlos Sainz), a McLaren (Norris) and a Mercedes (Lewis Hamilton). Verstappen was the highest-finishing Red Bull in fifth. If Norris is to win the title he will likely need something similar in 2024 to help him take a bigger chunk than seven or eight points out of Verstappen’s lead.
2023 result: Norris 2nd, Verstappen 5th – 20.6sec behind
Predicted advantage: McLaren
The first race in four that kerbs and bumps should not expose the RB20 and the resurfacing work since last year’s race will help Red Bull. Although Verstappen won last year’s race despite the uneven surface that has developed in Austin, it was far from a dominant Red Bull win.
Firstly, Verstappen had a lap time (fast enough for pole) deleted for a track limits infringement and qualified sixth. The 10-second margin to second-placed Norris, though, was hardly enormous.
This is the first of three sprint races in the next five and Red Bull have tended to be disadvantaged in those weekends where practice running and set-up work comes at a premium. This could be a closely matched fight.
2023 result: Verstappen 1st, Norris 2nd – 10.7sec behind
Predicted advantage: Equal
Mexico City is another outlier of a track that can produce anomalous results because of its altitude. It is a track where Red Bull have traditionally thrived, with Verstappen winning five of the last six editions.
By this stage it is difficult to know the exact development path (especially with an added unofficial “autumn break” between Singapore and Austin) but it seems unlikely that the Red Bull/McLaren fight will have switched by this point.
To close down McLaren’s overall advantage Red Bull will need to get an understanding of its problem areas and act on it. The Honda power unit has gone well here historically and Red Bull might be able to count on their aerodynamic efficiency too. Norris was only fifth last year but started 17th.
2023 result: Verstappen 1st, Norris 5th – 33.2sec behind
Predicted advantage: Red Bull
Looking at the current characteristics of both leading cars and also the Interlagos circuit, McLaren should be favourites. Again, it is a bumpy and undulating track that requires cars to ride kerbs, often at high-speed. If Norris is to genuinely remain in contention he will need Ferrari, Mercedes and Oscar Piastri to take points from Verstappen. This might be a good opportunity for it.
Going back 12 months has much more relevance for what we can expect this year because McLaren had reached the peak of their competitiveness. Norris took the sprint shootout pole in 2023 and finished around four and nine seconds behind Verstappen in the sprint and grand prix respectively, despite starting sixth in the latter.
2023 result: Verstappen 1st, Norris 2nd – 8.3sec behind
Predicted advantage: McLaren
All teams will have learned plenty from F1’s first outing at the new Las Vegas track from last year. Verstappen won again though did not take pole and his victory was in jeopardy for much of the race.
Although this is another street track, there are not too many areas of the layout that should especially worry Red Bull, with the numerous substantial flat-out sections potentially playing into their hands. McLaren’s new rear wing may make that less of an advantage than it once was.
2023 result: Verstappen 1st, Piastri 10th – 29.4sec behind (Norris DNF and Piastri started 18th)
Predicted advantage: Equal
Qatar 2023 saw McLaren take its first race victory of the season, albeit with Piastri taking the sprint on Saturday. As with Brazil it should be confident that its current package can be the class of the field as the numerous high-speed corners at Lusail will suit the MCL38.
Still, at this point everything needs to have gone right for Norris to be in the battle. That said, last year we had mandated 18-lap stints with concerns over tyre failures and that may have flattered McLaren slightly.
2023 result: Verstappen 1st, Piastri 2nd – 4.8sec behind
Predicted advantage: McLaren
It is difficult to know how much resource each team will have poured into their cars by the final race because it is entirely possible that Verstappen could increase his lead in the coming rounds, giving him some breathing space.
At the time of writing you would expect both teams to be pouring everything with two championships at stake which makes it hard to know where each team will stand at this point. We should expect it to be another tight one.
If Norris has kept the championship alive by the time we reach Abu Dhabi he will have done very well. It would mean he would have outscored Verstappen by at least 44 points in eight rounds which works out as 5.5 per race weekend. Even taking it to the final round would be a fantastic achievement for McLaren. Looking at the current development trend that does not seem too outlandish a possibility.
2023 result: Verstappen 1st, Norris 5th – 24.3sec behind
Predicted advantage: Equal